Risk of coronavirus on planes & other spaces

Coronavirus exposure risk on planes seems to be quite low, according to new research published by the US Department of Defense (link below).

This is based on a test they ran, where they simulated having one person infected on the plane and every single seat occupied.

Under such a scenario, they discovered that when a person is wearing a mask, 0.003% of air particles within the breathing zone of a person are infectious.

This wouldn't be nearly enough to cross the viral load needed to infect someone (more on that below).

Under such a scenario, they estimated that a person would have to fly for 54 hours sitting next to an infected person to get enough viral load to get infected.

99.99% of particles were filtered out of the cabin within six minutes due to fast air circulation, downward air ventilation and the filtration systems on the aircraft.

In fact, this has relevance to other areas surroundings as well.

As I'm writing this post (third week of Oct 2020), the latest data (and we have a lot of it after 10 months) seems to indicate that the rise in cases in most countries has been driven mainly by a small number of people.

Studies are showing that 80% of infections in most countries are the result of 20% of people spreading them.

How is that possible? That's because big spikes in cases aren't caused by "individual to individual" spread, but rather "individual to crowd" spread.

And "individual to crowd" spread needs a certain environment to work:

- Close proximity between people

- People not wearing masks

- Talking / shouting (virus particles travel farther)

- Not enough ventilation

So how come planes are relatively safe? It's because planes fail to meet 3 of the 4 criteria I mention above, and which are needed to create a "super spreading event":

Yes people on planes are sitting close to one another.

But: people are wearing masks, they're not talking all the time or shouting, and there is excellent ventilation.

In fact, virus particles have a tendency to drop to the ground relatively quickly, and ventilation (especially from above like on a plane) helps with that.

Virus particles can actually stay suspended in the air for a longer period of time in humid or badly ventilated areas.

So if you want to think about "high risk" places, think of places which meet the 4 "perfect super spreading event" criteria I listed above.

Examples include:

- Nightclubs

- Bars

- Tightly packed restaurants

- Crowded public transport

- Sub-standard gyms

As I mentioned earlier: you need to reach a certain "viral load" in order to get infected.

A Viral Load means a "sufficient number of virus particles to overwhelm your immune system".

So of course, the viral load threshold differs from person to person, based on the strength of their immune system (hint hint: work on that first!).

The biggest viral load you can get is by breathing in a high load from someone infected.

Reaching the threshold by "touch" is much harder, as you would have to accumulate "enough" viral load on your hands and then touch your nose, mouth eyes for all that load to get into your system.

While not easy, it's possible - so that's why it's always a good idea to wash your hands, don't touch your face, and sanitize surfaces, especially in the presence of immune compromised people (e.g. elderly and / or overweight or metabolically challenged & sick individuals).